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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.