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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."